PainStaking (PainStaking v1.0.3)
View SourceCalculate stakes in advantage betting situations
Summary
Types
A tuple which represents a supposed advantage wagering situation.
A keyword list which configures optional parameters for staking calculators
A tuple with a description and number
A keyword list with a single pair.
Functions
How much to stake in an arbitrage situation.
The mathematical expectations for a list of supposed edges
How much to stake on advantage situations based on the Kelly Criterion
Simulate a repeated edge situation for the average amount won
Types
@type edge() :: {String.t(), wager_price(), wager_price()}
A tuple which represents a supposed advantage wagering situation.
- a proposition description
- the estimate of the fair (or actual) odds of winning
- the odds offered by the counter-party to the wager
A keyword list which configures optional parameters for staking calculators
bankroll
: the total amount available for wagering; defaults to100
independent
: independent or mutually-exclusive simultaneous events; defaults tofalse
A tuple with a description and number
Primarily used to make it easier to collate results.
A keyword list with a single pair.
The key should be one of the atoms for a supported odds format from Exoddic. The value should be an appropriate representation for that key.
Examples:
- Probability:
[prob: 0.50]
- Moneyline:
[us: "+120"]
- Decimal:
[eu: 2.25]
- Traditional:
[uk: "4/1"]
Functions
@spec arb([edge()], staking_options()) :: {:ok, [tagged_number()], float()} | {:error, String.t()}
How much to stake in an arbitrage situation.
The bankroll
option can be used to set the maximum amount available to
bet on these outcomes.
The payouts may not all be exactly the same because of rounding to the nearest cent. This may cause a slight variation in the expected profit.
@spec ev([edge()], staking_options()) :: {:ok, [tagged_number()]}
The mathematical expectations for a list of supposed edges
A losing proposition will have an EV below the bankroll
@spec kelly([edge()], staking_options()) :: {:ok, [tagged_number()]} | {:error, String.t()}
How much to stake on advantage situations based on the Kelly Criterion
The output list may be in a different order or have fewer elements than the input list.
Mutually exclusive bets are staked as if they were not simultaneous. This leads to over-betting. The difference is negligible on small sets of wagers.
@spec sim_win([edge()], pos_integer(), staking_options()) :: {:ok, float()} | {:error, String.t()}
Simulate a repeated edge situation for the average amount won
iterations
sets the number of simulated outcomes