PainStaking v0.3.2 PainStaking
Calculate stakes in advantage betting situations
Summary
Types
A tuple which represents a supposed advantage wagering situation
A keyword list which configures optional parameters for staking calculators
A number tagged with a description to make collating results easier
A keyword list with a single pair. The key should be one of the atoms for a supported odds format from Exoddic. The value should be a supported way for expressing the odds for that key
Functions
Determine how much to bet on each of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes in an arbitrage situation
The mathematical expectations for a list of supposed edges
Determine the amount to stake on advantage situations based on the estimated edge and the Kelly Criterion
Simulate a repeated edge situation and see the average amount won
Types
edge :: {String.t, wager_price, wager_price}
A tuple which represents a supposed advantage wagering situation.
The first element is an edge description The second element is the estimate of the fair (or actual) odds of winning. The third element is the odds offered by the counter-party to the wager.
staking_options :: [bankroll: number, independent: boolean]
A keyword list which configures optional parameters for staking calculators
bankroll
is the total amount available for wagering, defaults to100
.independent
chooses between mutually exclusive and independent simultaneous events, defaults tofalse
tagged_number :: {String.t, number}
A number tagged with a description to make collating results easier.
wager_price :: [{:atom, number | String.t}]
A keyword list with a single pair. The key should be one of the atoms for a supported odds format from Exoddic. The value should be a supported way for expressing the odds for that key.
Examples:
- Probability:
[prob: 0.50]
- Moneyline:
[us: "+120"]
- Decimal:
[eu: 2.25]
- Traditional:
[uk: "4/1"]
Functions
Specs
arb([wager_price], staking_options) ::
{:ok, [float], float} |
{:error, String.t}
Determine how much to bet on each of a set of mutually exclusive outcomes in an arbitrage situation.
The optional bankroll
can be used to set the maximum amount available to
bet on these outcomes. The smaller the arbitrage, the closer your outlay will be to this number.
mutually_exclusives
is a list of mutually exclusive outcomes and the odds
offered on each.
Successful return: {:ok, [stake on each outcome], expected profit}
The payouts may not all be exactly the same because of rounding to the nearest cent. This may cause a slight variation in the expected profit.
Specs
ev([edge], staking_options) :: {:ok, [tagged_number]}
The mathematical expectations for a list of supposed edges
A losing proposition will have an EV below the supplied bankroll
The return values will be tagged with the provided edge descriptions
Specs
kelly([edge], staking_options) ::
{:ok, [tagged_number]} |
{:error, String.t}
Determine the amount to stake on advantage situations based on the estimated edge and the Kelly Criterion
Returns {:ok, list of amounts to wager on each}. The list will be sorted in expectation order.
Specs
sim_win([edge], non_neg_integer, staking_options) ::
{:ok, float} |
{:error, String.t}
Simulate a repeated edge situation and see the average amount won.
edges
is a list of simultaneous events
iter
is the number of simulation iterations to run
Returns the average win, assuming wagers are staked according
to the kelly